Thomas Zimmermann; Birgit Becker; Robert Vief

Goethe University Frankfurt / IDeA (Individual Development and Adaptive Education of Children at Risk)

Social inequality’s reproduction remains a central concern in sociology. This study analyses how macro-level contexts shape socioeconomic gaps in adolescents’ occupational aspirations, distinguishing between absolute status levels (ISEI scores) and relative positions within national status hierarchies (ridit scores). Building on theories of status maintenance and upward striving, we argue that national opportunity and incentive structures—such as educational tracking, intergenerational mobility, prosperity, and inequality—condition both the level and social distribution of occupational ambition.

Using PISA 2018 data from 385,397 15-year-old students in 68 countries, we estimate country fixed-effects linear models with cross-level interactions between parental SES and macro-contextual indicators. Results confirm a robust SES gradient in aspirations, but also reveal significant contextual variation: ambition gaps narrow when educational systems track later, mobility rates are higher, prosperity is lower, or income inequality is greater.

This attenuation results from two distinct mechanisms: upward shifts in absolute aspirations among low-SES youth and—more unexpectedly—declines in both absolute and relative aspirations among high-SES youth under high inequality. Relative ambitions among disadvantaged students remain largely stable, indicating that closing gaps in relative terms occurs primarily through downward adjustment at the top.

Our findings contribute to status attainment research by showing that national contexts not only enable upward striving but can also dampen elite ambition. This suggests a reconfiguration of status striving under conditions of structural constraint, with implications for theories of aspiration formation, inequality, and social mobility.

Steffen Schindler

University of Bamberg

Acquiring a further higher-level formal educational credential after having obtained a first (school-leaving or vocational) education degree is very common in the German education system. In this paper, we ask to what extent these processes of educational upgrading over the life course influence the association between social origins and earnings at occupational maturity. We discuss different mechanism that are related to educational upgrading and that contribute to the development of earnings differences between social classes of origin in addition to differences in the initial level of education. We expect that, if at all, educational upgrading has a reinforcing influence on earnings inequality by social origin. Our analyses are based on the adult cohort of the German National Educational Panel Study (NEPS). We consider persons born in the 1970s, for which we can observe earnings at the age of 40. We conduct decomposition analyses based on fully multiply imputed data. We find that – even though educational upgrading is associated with individual earnings premiums – it has only a small influence on earnings differences of persons from different social classes of origin at occupational maturity. These findings are driven by social differences in upgrading before labor market entry, while differences in upgrading after labor market entry do not account for earnings differences by social background. In contrast to the minor explanatory contribution of socially selective educational upgrading patterns, social inequality in the initial levels of education accounts for a substantive share of these earnings differentials.

Florian K. Kley

Leipzig University, Research Institute Social Cohesion

This study investigates whether graduates with a tertiary education who start their careers in jobs below their level of qualification (overeducated) are disadvantaged when it comes to accessing the income middle class (IMC) in the United States and Germany.  Drawing on panel data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation and the German Socio-Economic Panel, this study examines graduates who entered the labor market between 1991 and 2019. Event history techniques are used to analyze the impact of overeducation on initial and subsequent entries into the IMC during the first years of employment, while a multiverse approach is employed to examine transitions to various income thresholds. Additionally, the effect of the share of tertiary education on the chances of the overeducated reaching the IMC is assessed using a two-stage framework. Preliminary findings reveal clear disadvantages for overeducated job starters in the US, especially when initially entering the IMC, while later cohorts additionally face weaker chances of catching up. In Germany, overeducated job starters in the early 1990s exhibited even slightly higher transition rates, while this advantage diminished in later cohorts. Cross-country interactions confirm substantially stronger disadvantages in the US, while in both countries, higher shares of highly educated individuals are associated with more pronounced disadvantages for the overeducated. The findings suggest that overeducation may be seen as an already existing, or emerging burden for graduates’ path to the IMC. Labor market and qualification related measures are recommended to support job starters to avoid getting stuck in overeducation.

Maik Hamjediers; Leandro Iván Canzio

European University Institute

Recent geopolitical developments have reignited debates on conscription’s potential to strengthen military forces and address labor shortages through civilian service alternatives. However, the effects of conscription on the allocation of labor across occupations — especially in the light of conscription occurring at the key transition from school to work and into adulthood as well as only one gender being nearly exclusively the subject to conscription — are rather unknown. This study examines the impact of conscription on men’s occupational choices, focusing on three pathways: entry into military careers, transferable skills for civilian jobs, and promoting work in male-dominated occupations. Using European Labour Force Survey data (1983-2021), we exploit variation across birth cohorts in conscription and participation in military service induced by its suspension in 11 European countries between 1995 and 2011. Preliminary results indicate that conscription reduced men’s likelihood of working in male-dominated occupations in some countries but not in others. This research indicates how conscription is linked to occupational sorting and occupational segregation and contributes to the broader discussions on mandatory service programs and their societal consequences.